Market and Life Changes
Real estate is local because economies are local. I found myself waxing indignant over coffee this week (again) about the issues with GDP and the economic standard for determining a recession. GDP is an aggregate measure that often lies because economies are local, not national. It measures economic activity across all 50 states to determine economic well-being which would be like asking all your children or employees how they were and then taking the average response to determine whether everything was ok or whether action was needed.
This was top of mind because of a Moody’s economist who warned the U.S. was on the verge of recession and then doubled down, by showing the U.S. state by state. The map is ugly....
TOP TAKEAWAYS
GDP shrunk in the 1st quarter in 39 states, before rebounding a bit in the 2nd quarter.
States making up about ⅓ of the U.S. economy are already in a recession or on the cusp.
California and New York make up 1/5 of GDP and are holding steady, along with all the states in green keeping the national GDP in the positive.
Yes, Iowa is in the red and it’s not great.
In my January newsletter I wrote about recessions and animal spirits, from my seat at many client’s kitchen tables talking about buying and selling homes, it felt like something was building in our local economy that wasn’t great. I wasn’t ready to call it a recession yet, expressing hope for a lifting of the malaise in 2025. What I didn’t anticipate were the number of economic shocks that the upcoming months would bring to Iowa. We aren’t known for being the first in the country often, particularly when it comes to trends and recessions, but this time we are on the forefront. The good news about leading the country in recessionary indicators is that our business cycle shift towards the positive may happen before the recession is acknowledged nationally.
The local housing market has reflected the underlying data, particularly in the higher price points and even more acutely, in areas where employment has taken a hit. You may see national news that the market is adjusting, and home prices are down, but that is not the case for everyone, and it isn’t true across the board here either.
Going up in value: Quality homes under $250,000-still appreciating with multiple offers daily. In general, at any price point, unique quality homes that aren’t cookie cutter and are in desirable locations.
Going down in value: Bad flips, homes people overpaid for in 2020-2022 without proper due diligence, neighborhoods with oversaturation of similar/comparable homes.
The End of an Era
Imagine living millions of young men and women’s dreams, to play in front of huge crowds and tour the world playing music with your best friends. Imagine deciding after 4 years of hard touring, releasing an EP and an album to accolades, meeting your heroes and coming to the conclusion: “This isn’t my dream, it belongs to someone else.” This was Connor’s revelation, that his actual dream and what he was doing weren’t the same.
Some of you may know that I was a professional fisherman offshore on the Atlantic when I was pregnant with Connor, his father was my Captain. I was put on bedrest at about five months of pregnancy and only fished professionally one time after that. He was an in-utero fisherman and that is where his passion and calling lie-the family business.
Drumroll....I am thrilled to announce Connor is getting his USCG Captain’s License and becoming a professional guide, at this juncture, here and in Minnesota.
If you or anyone you know ever needs a guide, fishing advice or a litany of fun facts about fish and locations, you know who to call.
“Heaven knows I was just a young boy didn’t know what I wanted to be”
- Freedom 90, George Micheal
TRIUMPHANT AT HIS LAST SHOW - VANS WARPED
Thanks for being part of my tribe.
With breath and gratitude,
Meghan